🎯 Prop Line Moves

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▲ up   ▼ down Impact = Δ win-probability of the original bet (pp) — how much the move mattered proj = de-vigged Poisson / NB / Normal mean Δpp = implied-probability points vig = two-way hold

🎯 Biggest market moves impact on the original bet's win prob, cross-checked vs the full alt ladder

📈 Line moves the number moved

⚖️ Vig shifts number held, hold moved

💸 Price moves Δ implied prob at a fixed line

🎲 Yes/No props implied % — odds-driven